Week 3
Day 15. Monday March 30 2020. Running along rooftops
Quiet 6 mile walk this morning out to Seabird and the neighborhoods out there, then back along the Beach Loop. Ran into my friends Ken and Christine walking as well. They also exercise every day, so I have expected that I would run into them now and again. They usually bike ride, but the winter rains have decided to come back last week and this one, so we are all walking. We stood and talked for a bit. They are making cotton masks as well for their friends and say that they wear them when they go to the supermarket. I have not worn a mask in public yet. At the beginning of this crisis they were telling everyone that masks would not help much, and that keeping your hands clean was more critical. Now they are backing off that some and saying that masks would help as well.US now has 160k cases, so far ahead of any other country. Shows the early poor planning and execution that happened here. US arrogance comes back to bite. Couldn't happen here. We are better than everyone else.
Man plans and God laughs.
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In my Call of Duty. Modern Warfare 2 game, I am at a spot where you come to, and you are without a weapon, and the bad guys are running after you. Like a dream. I run, again and again, and I died on the same rooftop over 20 times in the same spot before I finally jumped onto youtube and found a walkthrough and discovered that there is a secret left turn on the rooftop that I hadn't seen. Ah. thanks. This was the first time I have asked for outside help.
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I am putting a website together of all my stuff that I can find. Stuff that I have written in the past, my radio shows, my youtube video work. Its all on my name, www.chipcassin.com. I have yet to look on some old hard drives, but I will, just to see if I have missed anything. My mom left me all of her old poems. The originals. I am afraid of dying and the poems will get thrown away by strangers. I should pass them on to someone so that that does not happen. My kids are not that stable yet in their lives for me to do this. Then there is Jill or Scott. I will mull on it.
Day 16. Tuesday March 31 2020.
On my walk along the beach 3 or 4 days ago, I picked up a mollusk shell which had barnacles built around it and a small clamshell inside the barnacles. It looked unique so I brought it home and did wonder a bit whether the clam inside the shell was still alive. All that day though I didn't see it move, so I left it on my kitchen counter. This morning I picked up the shell and the clam inside opened its shell, then closed it again, so in my walk this morning, I first went down to the ocean and threw the shell back into the surf. I hope it survived.
I walked down to my friend Jeff's tailor shop. He is in the process of making 200 masks for the hospital, and says he probably will not charge them for it. I did offer to help him in the work, but it really seemed that he wanted to make this effort his own so that he could personally own the effort. Good for him.
Others around me are also giving their time, money and energy to helping out during the virus. There was a woman who wrote an article a couple weeks back in Harpers that talked to this, that the gun nuts always talk about people shooting each other if times got bad, but in fact what studies have shown is that what people instead do is reach out and help each other. It's encouraging.
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I bought a Swiss Army Watch about 20 years ago, back before the days of cell phones, back when people still wore and needed watches. Brown wrist band, black face, white letters. About as simple and elegant and affordable as I was looking for. I wore it for a long time until cell phones came around, then I didn't need to wear a watch anymore so I hung it up on a hook in the mudroom in Santa Clara while the kids were growing up. It hung there for many years, always reminding my of my watch wearing days, and when I was younger and stronger. When I moved to Oregon 3 years ago, I took it off the hook and brought it with me, simply because it had been with me for so long.
I found it last week in a box, and decided to wrap it around my desk lamp where I do most of my work. A couple of days later, and to my surprise, I found another watch that looked just like the first one in another box. odd. strange. I guess I have two of them. I have no idea how that happened, or any recollection of ever having two of these watches. They are virtually identical to each other. Here I was for twenty years thinking that I had one of these things, when I actually always had two. Weirds me out. I still can't figure it out, and probably never will. Its too far back in time to piece together.
What is also strange that each watch stopped only five minutes apart from the other. One at 10:40. The other at 10:45.
There is the story of a man standing on a railway platform, and notices that there are two station clocks and each one of them is telling a different time, so he notifies a nearby porter that each clock is telling a different time and should probably be corrected. The porter thinks about it for a bit, then replies everything is in fact fine, and that surely, there would be no need for two clocks if they were to be reporting the same time.
What is also strange that each watch stopped only five minutes apart from the other. One at 10:40. The other at 10:45.
There is the story of a man standing on a railway platform, and notices that there are two station clocks and each one of them is telling a different time, so he notifies a nearby porter that each clock is telling a different time and should probably be corrected. The porter thinks about it for a bit, then replies everything is in fact fine, and that surely, there would be no need for two clocks if they were to be reporting the same time.
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Almost 4,000 deaths now in America, and everybody is being warned that 100,000 is not unfeasible by the time this thing is over, and also that 100,000 may be an optimistic scenario.
Day 17. Wednesday April 1 2020.
ok, just tried it. Seems I can copy off the graphs/charts, but not the data. Charts to April 1, 2020 are here:
To see the aggregate data, <click here>
As you can see, all the counts are still rising. The only possibly favorable news that I see is that for the world, ie the human race, the deaths per day (the last graph) looks like it may be tapering off. Let's hope.
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The first herd is never immune
There is an interesting phrase that started popping up in commentary yesterday, and that is "the first herd is never immune", which must come from the ranching industry, and I think is intended to mean that when a new virus hits a herd of cows, the first herd has no natural immunity, and so takes the full brunt of the hit. Later herds begin to have the built in antibodies to fight off the new virus, but it is only when populations begin to build up again.
Herd Immunity
There is also another phrase that has been around awhile which is important here, and that is "herd immunity". This phrase started popping up in the last 10 years or so because of the measles outbreaks that have occurred. The short story is that the Human Race pretty much conquered measles as a recurrent problem in society, but that success only came with the requirement that all new people arriving on the earth - ie children - also receive the measles vaccine when they are children.
Well, of course, once measles dissipated as a societal problem, a lot of people - on the political left and the political right for different reasons - began to feel that taking the vaccine shot was unnecessary for their children, and that in fact the vaccine could be dangerous. They felt this way because of herd immunity, meaning that if none of the herd has the virus, then it must not exist, and the chances of ever catching that virus is low.
The problem of course is that just because the virus is nowhere to be found in the herd does not mean that the virus does not exist in the wild. Its just waiting for idiots to not have taken the vaccine, and then it will find them and infect them, and in the past 20 years the obvious and expected problems arose. Groups of children in those political areas that were never given the vaccine started getting measles, and some got really sick and some died. This is really sad, as no one wants a kid to die unnecessarily. Or for any reason, for that matter.
The good though that came out of this recent societal crisis, is that all schools initiated much more discipline in requiring children to have all of their vaccine inoculations, and would deny entry to the school if the child was not fully vaccinated. Measles outbreaks have since now become much rarer.
A lot of people just don't trust science, or "experts", or, what we are seeing on the political right, they don't trust anything an educated person has to say. This is so sad. My own personal viewpoint on why this happened, and why most of our current societies problems have occurred, is that we are currently undergoing a phase of severe economic disparity in America. The top 5% own everything, and the lower 95% are getting less and less of the economic pie. This has led to much human despair in America, anger, and has erupted into our society in many different ways. The idiocy on the right for one, where they refuse to trust even the very idea of "knowledge" of any kind. another is the opioid crisis of the past 10 years where millions of people just check out and overdose and die.
There is a book called Debt, where the author says that - in History - whenever economic disparity in a nation becomes too severe, there is a crisis that usually occurs - usually a war - where said society has to drain its wealth through massive inflation, which consequently drains most wealth in said nation, which results in a flattening of the economic disparity.
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It would be nice to see some positive changes coming out of this current crisis. Like maybe stopping the live animal markets in South East Asia, which have caused the last two major world viral outbreaks. It would also be nice to see American finally deciding to join the family of nations in the rest of the world, and begin to offer real public health care. That would be nice, but as we all know, when dealing with politicians, and their economic masters, they will never change unless they are truly fearful that the angry crowds with torches are just on their doorstep. Its the way the world works.
Day 18. Thursday April 2 2020.
April 2. I see April as the quiet month for myself, as no one is going to lift "shelter in place" until the first week of May it looks like now. It might be longer. So my regular life, or what was my regular life, is put on hold this month.
The structure of these quiet days are fairly regular now. Wake up, make a coffee and something to eat, play with Tamale the super cat for a bit, then go on my big walk somewhere. I am trying to walk at least six miles a day. Some days I go down to the senior center where I have a key and I play piano. Sometimes I bring my laptop as well and write down there. Each day includes various emails or texts with friends or my kids. This small amount of contact is a blessing to me as it keeps me grounded and communicating with others. After my walk I come home and have a snack, then a siesta. Then I get up and work on the garden or something else in the house, then Play Call of Duty and write on the blog. At 5 or 6 I will make dinner then watch a movie on Netflix or Amazon then go to bed. Like I said, quiet days.
I am almost thinking I would like to go on a walking trip this summer from Bandon down the coast and see how far I get, then just call and see if I can get someone to pick me up.
The federal government passed a 2 trillion dollar relief "stimulus" package to revive the American economy, which all but stopped completely two weeks ago. Now they are talking about another 2 trillion dollar "infrastructure" bill as well, to rebuild America. The nation's infrastructure (roads and bridges, etc) has been noticeably decaying for the past 20 years, and they are always talking about a major infrastructure initiative, but have never before been able to agree on actually starting one. Too much money involved, and too much greed as well. Maybe this current crisis will give them the push they need.
Where they are getting the money for all this who knows. Maybe they are just printing money at this point hoping that the country just stays afloat. The huge downside to this that no one wants to talk about is that - if they are printing money - the massive inflationary spiral that might result afterwards. We shall see.
Day 19. Friday April 3 2020.
Trudging through April. 6 mile walk this morning out to the east side of town and back. Opened up a local bank account this afternoon at Banner Bank corner of 11th and the 101. I have lived here for 2 1/2 years and have not yet opened a local bank account. Every time I need cash I just go to the supermarket and buy something, and they have let me use my Bank of America ATM card and ask for money back. Its worked out well, but I have been thinking of late that I need a local bank account. Put 3,000 dollars in. Now I have one. That, along with my local phone (541) phone number, and I can marginally pass as local now. That is, until I start talking politics with anyone. Most people are pretty right wing here, but of course we all see ourselves as rationally open minded. And of course it is true to a large extent that 95% of each of our lives is the same. We eat and sleep and care about our families, and just try to get through the day and raise our kids. We would also help each other out at a moment's notice. But politics, politics is the great divide in us. The same guy that I would stop and help him fix the tire on his truck, and he would do the same for me, that same guy would spit anger at me and call me a danger to society if we started talking politics. Something wrong there, and it doesn't seem any of us is smart enough to know how to fix it, to focus on what makes us the same rather than what makes us different.
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Over a million cases of coronavirus in the world now, and the lines on the chart are still going up. Surgeon General says all americans need to stay inside until this blows over, and of course our baby president is disagreeing because, well, just because. He doesn't seem to like anyone knowing anything more than he does, and is known to actually fire experts just because they are getting more attention than he does. It has become something of a sad game to watch him fire people that are trying to help him, simply because the country is responding positively to them, and the fact that they are telling the truth. Crazy.
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Picture of the day from Bandon Beach. 11th Street steps between the beach and the road back home.
Day 20. Saturday April 4 2020.
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| Everywhere I go, I always notice music and bicycles |
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The Center for Disease Control in America (popularly known as the CDC) is now telling everyone to create masks for themselves, not so much to protect oneself from others, but more to protect oneself from one's hands. It seems that a human cannot help but touch his or her hands to the face multiple times an hour. It's built into us. Viruses take advantage of this, and our hands become the main vector for a virus into our body. Touch a surface with a virus on it, then touch your face. Simple as pie, and the virus gets in.
Current data projections specify that COVID-19, AKA the coronavirus, will "peak" in the US mid April, California end of April, and Oregon May 5th. They are also saying that the southern states will probably get hit hard before the end of the month, mostly because they are idiots, having spent that past 10 years fighting against the expansion of health care for all, and have also fought the "shelter in place" initiatives that other states immediately put in place last month. Again the southern state mantra has always been "Anything the liberals are doing, we are going to do the opposite". Liberals believe in science and facts, well we will just make up our own, and deny that science and experts know anything. All that thinking, and it may catch up to them now. No one sheltered in place, no one has health care, and the virus is spreading down there. You don't want to wish it on anybody, but when you get someone constantly telling you that the ditch they are about to walk into doesn't exist, and then they proceed to step in it, well...
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Walked south along the beach loop out to my friend Gene's house this morning out on Mars place. He is not there, but it's been a goal of mine to walk out there. It was a good six mile walk. Then I ran into Christine and Ken and we chatted for a bit. Christine has gotten way serious with the face masks, and she gave me one that she had made. Nice mask. Later on in the afternoon, I brought them some hand santizer that I had made, and they gave me a slice of peach pie. OMG, it it wonderful.
I finally hooked up a DVD player that has been sitting around. I exchanged it for an older one I had with my friend Christine. She runs Coastal Harvest, which helps out people who are not as fortunate, including handing out food on Wednesdays. I help out Christine when she needs it, and of late have been checking all the electronics for her that come in as donations, ie all the DVD players, etc.
This touches on an aspect of Bandon that is nice for me, ie that I am surrounded by friends, and we help each other out. While I certainly had friends in Santa Clara, the difference is that we pretty much kept to ourselves except for the occasional dinner and going out drinking and laughing, that kind of thing. Just socializing. Here in Bandon, however, there is more an attitude of we all have our skill sets, so will contribute to each other where and when we can to the friends we have around us. Its a new social paradigm for me and I kind of like it.
Day 21. Sunday April 5 2020.
the streets aren't for dreaming now - Tom Waits.
Deaths are leveling off in Europe. Meaning if
Deaths still climbing in the US however with no end in sight, although the death peak is estimated to occur sometime this month. I can't see how the president survives this in an election year, but he does seem to survive almost anything. His right wing supporters are rabid. He has said that he could stand in the middle of times square and shoot someone and his supporters will still back him. The world watches and wonders at the insanity that has overtaken this country.
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I was on the Bandon earth day committee this year as sort of the compute guy, building the web site, mailing lists, spreadsheets, that sort of thing. The big day was supposed to be April 18 but of course its been cancelled along with everything else. I asked Jeff down at the theater and the barn if there are any scheduled events AT ALL, and he said there is a music group still scheduled for July. We'll see. A virus projection website that I have been tracking puts the sort-of virus clearance date at August 4th. Everything is up in the air.
Feeling slightly stir crazy today.
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